Barring any mishaps, Fem van Empel and Puck Pieterse will be the main contenders in the Elite Women’s race at the 2023 Cyclo-Cross World Championships in Hoogerheide, Netherlands on February 4th.
Fem Van Empel
Fem van Empel still remains our top pick for the win, even though she has shown some weaknesses in the last month.
Van Empel’s strength is her engine, her ability to lay down power on long sections of a course and motor away from her rivals. While she has the skills to negotiate tricky sections of a race course, lately she’s lacked the same confidence of her rivals. We saw this weakness at the World Cup in Val di Sole, where she crashed out of the race injured, and in the sands of Zonhoven, where she tumbled several times trying to negotiate the descents. More recently, she had problems at the Dutch National Championships on January 15th on the wet and tricky course and had to settle for 3rd.
In an interview after the Dutch National Championships she admitted that she wasn’t going as well as her competitors:
“I felt pretty good” said Van Empel, “[but] I think I haven’t really trained on my cross bike since Val di Sole, so I kind of miss that specific cross feeling. It’s about a few percentages, but … you just can’t be less. I think those few percentages will have to be added in the coming weeks.”
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It may be that the obligations that come with Van Empel’s new team Jumbo-Visma – training camps and road cycling – will interfere with her ‘cross preparations. The question is whether or not Van Empel can get back the ‘specific cross feeling’ that will give her the extra few percentages needed for a decisive advantage. She was able to win earlier in the year when she was less than a 100%, but that was when Pieterse and Van Anrooij were not in top form like they are now. The biggest factor may very well be the technical conditions of the course on race day. Wet and rainy conditions could create a challenging course that slows her down. Hoogerheide is a fast course and her best bet is to pray for sunny, dry conditions.
Puck Pieterse
Puck Pieterse could also take the win, but when we looked at all the stats, she fell short by a few points and ended up 2nd in our predictions.
While Pieterse has shown improved fitness, her strength lies in her ability to lead on technical courses that favor her ‘cross skills, rather than her physical abilities. In most of the races requiring pure power, Fem van Empel has proven herself to be superior. This isn’t to say that Pieterse doesn’t have the physical attributes, but rather that she needs to focus on exploiting the technical sections of the course against rivals like Empel who are stronger. On the drier and faster courses this season, Pieterse showed that didn’t quite have the same speed or ability to make punchy efforts like Van Empel.
Evidence of Pieterse’s ability in foul, wet conditions was seen recently at the Dutch National Championships, where she soloed to victory, 26 seconds ahead of her teammate Ceylin del Carmen Alvarado and 39 seconds ahead of rival Fem van Empel.
Pieterse had this to say about winning the National Championships:
“I knew I would be a title contender, I’ve been on the podium all season. But of course, I still had to do it. I noticed that Fem and Ceylin really weren’t bad today, it was difficult to determine where I should use my strength during the race.”
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It will be to Pieterse’s advantage if the conditions of the World Championships course in Hoogerheide are similar to the Dutch Championships – or even worse.
Shirin Van Anrooij
[Editor’s note: After the World Cup race in Benidorm, Spain, Van Anrooij announced that she will ride the U23 race and not the Elite race at the World Championships.]
At the tme of this writing, Van Anrooij is still undecided about whether she will race in the Elite or the U23 category at the Worlds. It’s been reported that she will decide after the World Cup race in Benidorm, Spain on January 22. If she does race in the Elite category, she will face two very strong rivals – Van Empel and Pieterse – who, so far, have beaten her in most of the World Cup races.
To Van Anrooij’s credit, she has won the last two World Cup races in Gavere and Zonhoven, performing well on the difficult, tricky courses, and she won in Beekse Bergen by playing her rivals off one another. Her weakness is in the amount of power she can put out compared to Van Empel and Pieterse. Van Anrooij has the ability to lay down steady and consistent power of the kind she demonstrated in the sandy conditions in Zonhoven, but she doesn’t have the ability to make punchy efforts or ride fast and hard for a long duration.
After her victory in the sand at Zonhoven, Van Anroooij spoke about her style of racing:
“I was in control on this course, I didn’t make any mistakes … I could just ride my pace. I was in a good flow … the sand is wonderful to [ride] through. I knew it was possible. After Koksijde I knew that I could rely on my sand qualities, and that the power pieces uphill also suit me well. But I didn’t expect to go solo in the second round.”
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Van Anrooij’s hope on race day should be for course conditions that slow down her competitors and allow her to slip into a steady rhythm. A race course that allows for fast or punchy riding won’t be to her advantage. A repeat of Beekse Bergen, where Van Empel and Pieterse focused too much on each other, would also benefit Van Anrooij. If she races the U23 race, she’s a shoo-in for the win. If she races the Elite category, she’ll need great legs and course conditions to pull off the win.
