The Elite Men’s race at the Cyclo-Cross World Championships in Hoogerheide, Netherlands on February 5th will more than likely develop into two races:
- A mano-a-mano battle between the ‘cross giants Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel for the championship.
- A race to get on the podium between World Cup ‘cross stars Michael Vanthourenhout, Laurens Sweeck, Lars van der Haar, and Eli Iserbyt.
Here’s our take on the top two contenders and those riders that have a chance of climbing onto the podium.
Wout Van Aert
Wout van Aert has shown great form lately and should be the favorite going into the Worlds. While he started the season later than Van der Poel, he was quick in getting back his ‘cross fitness and skills, winning two World Cups in Dublin and Zonhoven, and showing he could go head-to-head with Mathieu Van der Poel and Tom Pidcock.
Like Fem Van Empel, Van Aert’s strength is his engine. He has plenty of power and can deploy it on almost any part of a course. He’s also very capable in the running sections and has shown how easily he can gap riders when he is on foot. Where his weakness may be is in the technical sections of a course. It isn’t always so obvious, but Van Aert has a tendency to muscle his way through the technical sections, rather than pick the best line or track to follow. This extra expenditure of energy is also evident when he runs over the barriers, rather than hopping them with his bike. Some might say that Van Aert is strong enough and can afford to waste a few watts here or there, but everyone knows, once you spend the energy, it’s gone, and there’s no getting it back.
Van Aert, speaking to the press, downplayed his form after the Zonhoven World Cup:
“Today I had the feeling that I could ride at a high pace, but that real acceleration is no longer there after a number of tough crosses. That acceleration has blunted and it must come back by resting for a while. I want to rest well first and then train hard on a team internship. I just need training kilometers.”
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Like Mathieu van der Poel, Van Aert has been at a training camp with his Jumbo-Visa road team in Spain since the last World Cup race. While this training camp is helpful for the upcoming road season, it may put him, as well as Van der Poel, at a disadvantage in prepping for the Worlds. How much specific ‘cross training he can accomplish is questionable. He is scheduled to race the World Cup in Benidorm, Spain on January 22 and this should give us a better idea of where his ‘cross form is.
As far as the World Championship course is concerned, the fast Hoogerheide course should be a perfect fit for him. Adverse weather conditions like ice and snow won’t benefit him.
Mathieu Van Der Poel
On paper, Van der Poel has both the engine and ‘cross skills to win the Worlds. Like Van Aert, Van der Poel can put out the power and ride hard, but in addition to that, he has the ability to launch high wattage attacks that gap his rivals. Skill-wise, Van der Poel has the benefit of a mountain bike background and usually shows a better sense than his rivals when it comes to navigating technical sections and picking his lines. He can also hop barriers at a good clip and has no problems getting off the bike and running. That’s the good news.
The bad news, and the reason why Van der Poel isn’t the favorite, is that Van der Poel has had back issues recently that have prevented him from performing at 100%. His cyclo-cross season started off brilliantly, even if his ‘cross skills were a bit rusty, and he fell right into the rhythm by winning the World Cup races in Hulst, Antwerp, and Gavere. But thereafter, the problems began.
Van der Poel spoke recently from a training camp in Spain about his chances at the Worlds:
“I always find it difficult to estimate how much chance I have of winning the rainbow jersey. I do think that Wout [van Aert] has an advantage, but I can have eliminated that here in Spain by then. I hope that I can do my preparation well and that my back will not bother me in Hoogerheide.”
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In addition to his back issues, it must be said that Van der Poel has shown some other weaknesses this season. His less than spectacular 7th place at the World Cup snow-cross in Val di Sole left everyone wondering what was up. Was he was ill, tired, or simply lacking the confidence needed for the icy conditions? And his recent 2nd place at Zonhoven wasn’t much of an achievement if one takes into account that he finished 1:23 down on Wout van Aert.
While Van der Poel usually performs well in any conditions, his back issues may dictate the type of race course that is most suitable for him. Snow and ice, which could appear in early February in Hoogerheide, are probably not in his favor. And while the fast conditions of the Hoogerheide course would usually benefit Van der Poel, it may prove to be too much for him if his back issues flare up.
At this writing, the greatest factor that will determine the outcome of the Worlds may be Van der Poel’s back. How much his back problems have plagued him and slowed him down is uncertain. Van der Poel himself has said he doesn’t know the extent of the problem and that he only has issues in cyclo-cross race conditions. Whether Van der Poel will put his stamp on the Hoogerheide Worlds or not will largely depend upon how his back holds up.
Long Shots
The long shot list isn’t terribly long, but there are some worthy ‘cross riders who could pull off an upset victory at the Worlds if Van Aert and Van der Poel falter.
Michael Vanthourenhout is our favorite long shot. He’s had a phenomenal season, winning the European Championships, two World Cup races (Overijse and Val di Sole), and most recently, the Belgian National Championships. He has excellent ‘cross skills and endurance. What he lacks is explosiveness and a fast finish. Slick, wet, icy conditions do not seem to bother him, in fact he thrives. He’s at his best on a course that requires a measured and consistent rhythm.
Laurens Sweeck could do very well at the Worlds if the course stays fast and dry. With two World Cup wins, Maasmechelen and Beekse Bergen, and four 2nd places, he is now the overall World Cup leader. He has the power and speed to finish well at the Worlds, but his focus may be elsewhere. With only two World Cup races remaining, Benidorm, Spain on Jan. 22, and Besançon, France on Jan. 29, his World Cup goal may not be aligned with the Worlds.
Lars van der Haar won the recent Dutch National championships and is in 4th place overall in the World Cup standings. While he has not yet been able to nail down a World Cup victory, he did have consistent podium placings before Pidcock, Van der Poel, and Van Aert arrived. He’s also the overall leader in the Super Prestige series, even though he hasn’t won any of the races. He’s a bit of an enigma, showing strength early on in races, but then fading later at the crucial moments. His chances of making the podium at the Worlds will depend on how the race unfolds. If it blows apart and gets strung out, he’ll probably round out the top five. If groups stay together until the finish, then he has a good chance at the podium (3rd) if it comes down to a sprint.
Eli Iserbyt had a super start to the ‘cross season, winning three World cup races and winning or finishing on the podium at every other race. However, in November things went south for him. His DNF at the European Championships in early November was a big surprise to everyone, as was his failure to win or finish as frequently on the podium as he had earlier in the season. In post-race interviews, Iserbyt has revealed he is suffering from issues with leg numbness that may be the result of previous back problems. His chances for a Worlds podium spot are slim and the fast Hoogerheide course doesn’t favor a rider his riding style. If, however, the weather makes the course wild, he could turn things around against his larger, more powerful opponents, and climb onto the podium.
